By Rory Carroll
LOS ANGELES, Oct 16 (Reuters) – Experts are divided over whether the Los Angeles Dodgers’ sweep by the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series will affect Major League Baseball’s labor talks, where owners are pushing for a salary cap that players oppose.
The big-spending Dodgers were thoroughly outplayed by the relentless Brewers, who rank 19th in payroll out of the league’s 30 clubs. Milwaukee will return to the World Series for the first time in 44 years after vanquishing the two-time defending champions.
Tony Torain, a partner at McDermott Will & Schulte who specializes in labor and employment law, said the result weakens the owners’ case that there isn’t enough parity in the sport.
“I think we’ll have a lockout and the league will still try to use that leverage,” he said.
“But in terms of making the argument for why they think they need a salary cap, the Brewers undercut it. There’s definitely leverage on the PA’s side,” he said, referring to the players’ association.
He said the union will argue that player development, not payroll, drives winning. He also expects the union to press for higher minimum salaries, an idea it raised early in talks.
In their first proposal in May, MLB owners asked for a hard cap of $245.3 million, including player benefits, and a payroll floor of $171.2 million, starting in 2027.
The players have long opposed any form of salary cap. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1.
Torain said baseball’s growing popularity puts added pressure on owners, who have never had a cap in the sport’s history. The last time owners pushed for a cap, players went on strike in 1994. The 232-day stoppage forced the cancellation of that year’s World Series.
“If you have a lockout, it’s not on TV, you can’t go to the parks, so you’re not getting those revenue sources,” he said.
MESSAGING WIN
Bob Dorfman, a San Francisco-based sports marketing analyst, said the Dodgers’ playoff exit will change little.
“I don’t think it’s going to change anything that happens for those CBA talks,” he said.
At most, he said, the sweep is “a messaging win” for the union. He also questioned whether a cap would improve competitive balance, saying attendance, which has risen four seasons in a row, and viewership are strong without one.
He agreed that a lockout is likely when the current agreement expires. He said he hopes a stoppage is short, but in a worst case the season could shrink to 70 to 80 games. He said he hopes owners will eventually put off the cap fight for a future contract negotiation.
Dorfman said a lockout would anger fans and expects games to be lost, perhaps for a month or two in an optimistic scenario.
He said owners tend to win labor fights because they can outlast unions. When reminded that owners failed to win a cap in 1994-95 season, he said, “I hope that happens again.”
(Reporting by Rory Carroll; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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