You must search a bit to find it because it’s not good news for Joe Biden or the Democrats, but the latest New York Times/Siena poll shows former President Donald J. Trump continuing his pace to have a historic performance among black voters this year. If this trend holds, Joe Biden will be relegated to the nursing home for all time.
CNN’s Harry Enten did a segment on Trump’s levels of support among black voters, which is partially fueled by the defection from Democrats in the under-50 bracket of this demographic. During the 2020 election, they were hard-core Biden supporters, with the Delaware liberal holding a remarkable 80-point advantage. Biden is only favored among this voter group by 37 points; it’s been more than halved in four years. Is there anything that can reverse these trends? Enten said as of now—no.
The New York Times’ latest poll has Donald Trump, with leaners, courting 30 percent of the black vote among registered voters. Among likely voters with leaners, Trump still clinches historic numbers with this bloc at 26 percent. Lefty reporter Michael Tracey even highlighted this crosstab, noting that if it holds, Trump will receive the largest share of the black vote for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1960:
Is this an outlier? Nate Silver had a lengthy piece about the state of the race, where he noted that for now, the 2024 election looks remarkably stable regarding any chance things get wild with the surveys. People know who’s on the ballot and how they feel about them, with increased polarization adding to that stability. Many polls have been conducted during this cycle, and they all point to a Biden defeat in November if nothing drastically changes.
From the economy to inflation and even who would best protect democracy—a silly question—Trump is now leading across the board on the top issues. At the very least, and Silver concedes this, the list of reasons for Trump to win this year is becoming more robust by the week compared to that of Mr. Biden. Even in those scenarios if everyone votes, which Democrats love to harp when coming out against voter ID laws, Donald Trump would benefit more, not Biden (via NYT):
In a reversal of one of the most familiar patterns in American politics, it appears that Donald J. Trump, not President Biden, would stand to gain if everyone in the country turned out and voted.
In New York Times/Siena College polls over the last year, Mr. Biden holds a wide lead over Mr. Trump among regular primary and midterm voters, yet he trails among the rest of the electorate, giving Mr. Trump a lead among registered voters overall.
The pattern is the latest example of how the Trump brand of conservative populism has transformed American politics. His candidacy galvanized liberals to defend democracy and abortion rights, giving Democrats the edge in low-turnout special and midterm elections. Yet at the same time, early polls suggest, many less engaged and infrequent voters have grown deeply dissatisfied with Mr. Biden.
The disengaged voters do not necessarily like Mr. Trump, the polling shows. But they’re motivated by pocketbook issues, more desiring of fundamental changes to the political system, and far less concerned about democracy as an issue in the election. Many low-turnout voters — notably including many who consider themselves Democrats — now say they’ll back Mr. Trump.
There isn’t much good news for Democrats. Tonight is the night for Biden to reset the race if he can manage going 90 minutes without falling or short-circuiting at the podium.
