AAA projects 50.9 million Americans will journey 50 miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving, a 3.3 percent increase over last year. The 2017 holiday weekend will see the highest Thanksgiving travel volume since 2005 with 1.6 million more people taking to the nation’s roads, skies, rails and waterways compared with last year. AAA and INRIX, a global transportation analytics company, predict travel times in the most congested cities in the U.S. during the holiday week could be as much as three times longer than the optimal trip. This is also the season you’ll find shopping packing local shopping centers much like the River Oaks District.
“Thanksgiving kicks off the start of a busy holiday season, and more thankful Americans will travel to spend time with friends and family this year,” said Bill Sutherland, AAA senior vice president, Travel and Publishing. “A strong economy and labor market are generating rising incomes and higher consumer confidence, fueling a strong year for the travel industry, which will continue into the holiday season.”
The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as Wednesday, Nov. 22 to Sunday, Nov. 26.
By the Numbers: 2017 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast
- Road trip ready: 89 percent of all travelers – 45.5 million – are planning a Thanksgiving road trip, an increase of 3.2 percent over last year.
- Cheaper airfare: Consumers will pay the cheapest average airfare since 2013.
- Fuller skies: The largest growth in holiday travel is by air travel, at five percent, with 3.95 million travelers.
- Alternate travel: Travel by trains and other modes (including buses and cruises) is expected to increase 1.1 percent to 1.48 million travelers.
- Fueling up: Drivers will pay the highest Thanksgiving gas prices since 2014.
- Holiday high: Car rental daily rates will hit a five-year holiday high at $70/day, which may be due to an increase in domestic demand and cost of newer vehicles.
Travelers still hitting the road despite higher gas prices
While AAA expects most U.S. drivers will pay the highest Thanksgiving gas prices since 2014, the vast majority of holiday travelers (89.3 percent) are still planning to hit the road. Automobile travel will grow by 3.2 percent this Thanksgiving, with 45.5 million Americans planning a holiday road trip. This November’s national average price is $2.54, which is 37 cents more than last November (1st-14th).
Highs and Lows: Car rentals, airfare and hotel rates
According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index, travelers taking to the skies will pay the lowest average in five years for a round-trip flight for the top 40 domestic routes. At $157, on average, that is a 23 percent fare drop year-over-year.
Travelers can expect to spend any ‘flight savings’ on car rentals. At $70/day, the daily car rental average is 34 percent more than last year and the highest rate for Thanksgiving weekend since 2013. The increase in rates may be attributed to an increase in domestic demand and cost of newer vehicles in the fleets with added features and benefits.
Travelers will pay more for AAA Three Diamond Rated hotels this holiday weekend. The average price increased by 14 percent to $176/night. Conversely, the average rate for AAA Two Diamond Rated hotels has decreased five percent with an average nightly cost of $117.
Travelers Beware and Advised: Traffic Hotspots and Best and Worst Times to Hit the Road
Based on historical and recent travel trends for the holiday week, INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the greatest amount of congestion during the early evening – as early as Tuesday of Thanksgiving week – as commuters mix with holiday travelers. At its peak, drivers on Chicago’s interstates, for example, could see a delay of nearly 300 percent over the optimal trip.
“Thanksgiving has historically been one of the busiest holidays for road trips, and this year we could see record-level travel delays,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.”
| Worst Time to Travel | |||
| Metro Area | Worst Day for Travel | Worst Timefor Travel | Delay Multiplier |
| Chicago, IL | Tuesday | 5:00 – 6:00 PM | 3x |
| San Francisco, CA | Tuesday | 4:00 – 5:45 PM | 2.5X |
| Los Angeles, CA | Tuesday | 3:15 – 6:00 PM | 2.5x |
| Boston, MA | Tuesday | 5:15 – 7:15 PM | 2.5x |
| New York, NY | Tuesday | 5:30 – 6:30 PM | 2x |
| Washington, DC | Tuesday | 4:45 – 6:00 PM | 2x |
| Seattle, WA | Tuesday | 3:45 – 5:30 PM | 2x |
| Atlanta, GA | Wednesday | 3:00 – 5:15 PM | 2x |
| Houston, TX | Wednesday | 5:45 – 7:00 PM | 1x |
| Detroit, MI | Tuesday | 3:00 – 5:30 PM | 1x |
The worst traffic hotspot during Thanksgiving week in each of the 10 most congested cities in the U.S. are:
| Top Traffic Hotspot in America’s Most Congested Cities | ||
| Rank | City | Location |
| 1 | Los Angeles, CA | I-5 S at Valley View Ave |
| 2 | New York, NY | I-495 E at NY-106/NY-107 |
| 3 | San Francisco, CA | I-80 E at Pinole Valley Rd |
| 4 | Atlanta, GA | I-75 N at Chastain Rd |
| 5 | Miami, FL | I-95 N at Congress Ave |
| 6 | Washington, DC | I-95 S at US-17/US-1 |
| 7 | Dallas, TX | US-75 S at I-45/I-3 |
| 8 | Boston, MA | I-90 W at I-84/US-20 |
| 9 | Chicago, IL | I-90 W at I-190 |
| 10 | Seattle, WA | I-405 S at WA-167 |
Across the country, travelers that take to the sky must account for long security lines, but also increased drive times to the airport. AAA and INRIX expect delays getting to the nation’s busiest airports could be as long as an hour.
| Worst Travel Times to America’s Busiest Airports | |||
| Metro Area | Airport Route | Worst Timefor Travel | Travel Timeat Peak |
| New York, NY | Downtown to JFK via Long Island Expressway East | Tuesday, 5:30 – 7:30 PM | 1 hr 54 min |
| Chicago, IL | Downtown to ORD via Kennedy Expressway West | Tuesday, 4:30 – 5:30 PM | 1 hr 14 min |
| Denver, CO | Downtown to DIA via I-70 E and Pena Blvd | Wednesday, 4:30 – 6:30 PM | 52 min |
| Los Angeles, CA | Downtown to LAX via I-110 S | Tuesday, 4:30 – 6:30 PM | 46 min |
| Dallas, TX | Downtown to DFW via TX-183 W | Wednesday, 8:00 – 9:00 AM | 46 min |
| Las Vegas, NV | Downtown to LAS via I-15 S | Wednesday, 8:00 – 9:00 AM | 45 min |
| San Francisco, CA | Downtown to SFO via US-101 S | Tuesday, 5:00 – 7:00 PM | 29 min |
| Seattle, WA | Downtown to SEA via I-5 S | Tuesday, 3:00 – 5:00 PM | 29 min |
| Charlotte, NC | Downtown to CLT via US-74 W | Wednesday, 1:00 – 3:00 PM | 19 min |
| Atlanta, GA | Downtown to ALT via I-75 S | Wednesday, 5:00 – 7:00 PM | 12 min |
Top 10 Thanksgiving Destinations
Many travelers will seek theme-park and warm-weather destinations this Thanksgiving. Both Orlando, Florida, and Anaheim, California, top this year’s top 10 holiday destinations based on AAA.com bookings. Compared to previous years, New York City, Las Vegas and San Francisco are gaining popularity as holiday spots.
- Orlando, Florida
- Anaheim, California
- New York City, New York
- Honolulu, Hawaii
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
- Cancun, Mexico
- San Francisco, California
- Kahului, Maui, Hawaii
- Fort Lauderdale, Florida
According to Hertz, the busiest airport pick-up locations for travelers planning to rent a car this Thanksgiving are expected to be Orlando (MCO), Los Angeles (LAX), Miami (MIA), Las Vegas (LAS) and Fort Lauderdale (FLL). The busiest day for rental pick-ups is expected to be Wednesday, Nov. 22, with an average rental length of nearly five full days, as travelers look to take advantage of the long holiday weekend.
Lockouts, flat tires to strand 330,000 motorists this Thanksgiving
AAA expects to rescue more than 330,000 motorists this Thanksgiving weekend, with the primary reasons being lockouts, flat tires and battery-related issues. AAA recommends motorists have their vehicles inspected by a trusted repair shop, such as one of the more than 7,000 AAA Approved Auto Repair facilities across North America. Members can download the AAA Mobile app, visit AAA.com or call 1-800-AAA-HELP to request roadside assistance.
Download the AAA Mobile app before a Thanksgiving getaway
Before setting out for the long Thanksgiving weekend, download the free AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. Travelers can use the app to map a route, find the lowest gas prices, access exclusive member discounts, make travel arrangements, request AAA roadside assistance, find AAA Approved Auto Repair facilities and more. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile.
With the AAA Mobile app, travelers can also find nearly 59,000 AAA Diamond Rated hotels and restaurants. AAA’s is the only rating system that uses full-time, professionally trained evaluators to inspect each property on an annual basis. Every AAA Inspected & Approved establishment offers the assurance of acceptable cleanliness, comfort and hospitality, and ratings of One to Five Diamonds help travelers find the right match for amenities and services.
About the AAA travel forecast:
AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit. The London-based business information provider teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends during major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. The complete AAA/IHS Markit 2017 Thanksgiving holiday travel forecast is available here.
As North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides nearly 58 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services. Since its founding in 1902, the not-for-profit, fully tax-paying AAA has been a leader and advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. Motorists can map a route, identify gas prices, find discounts, book a hotel and access AAA roadside assistance with the AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile. AAA clubs can be visited on the Internet at AAA.com.
